It's in the Governor General's hands now...

Uh-oh, did someone say "prorogue"???

A lot can happen in a week. Unlike the Department of Culture, I'm not quite ready to bestow victory on the coalition government yet. Look at all that has happened in the last week, hell, the last 3 days. December 8th is still a long way away.

However, despite the Conservatives' best efforts, it looks like the Liberals-NDP-Bloc coalition is ready to go, for at least 18 months and at least two federal budgets. It's really quite remarkable that these parties managed to shelve their differences (at least for the last week) in order to get this thing together. No matter what anybody says (secret deal or not), this was a HUGE mountain to climb for all involved.

But. The government has yet to fall. Harper does have one procedural 'out'. He could try to prorogue the House. In short, this essentially means that he ends this session of Parliament before a vote of non-confidence can be made, until January 27th. If he does try this (highly unlikely) procedural tactic, it will be difficult to maintain his argument that the proposed L/N/B coalition government is undemocratic.

As unlikely as this scenario might be, well, this seems to be the week for unlikely political scenarios. In any case, whether the government falls or Harper attempts to prorogue the House, the end result is that the final decision about the future of our government will be the Governor General's responsibility.

(For a detailed description why proroguing the House still means that the GG has final say, check out Andrew Steele's blog over at the Globe & Mail.)

But let's assume that the government falls on December 8th. If so, Harper must go the GG and tell her that he has lost the confidence of the House. He will then, presumably, ask her to hold another election.

The Conservatives are not going to roll over on this one. They are fighting, and will continue to fight, tooth-and-nail to get public opinion on their side. This is important because the GG is obliged to act in the best interest of Canadians. If she feels that the Canadian public is not being represented properly by the coalition government, she will call for another election.

Alot of the material I've read so far has noted that the GG will be facing a lot of pressure to let the coalition take a shot at governing because the current Parliament has barely lasted two months, and it's too soon for Canadians to go to the polls again. However, if the Conservatives can persuade her that more Canadians believe that the government has been "stolen" by the coalition, or that it's somehow undemocratic that coalition should govern, then the writ shall fall.

And again, let's consider also the tools the Conservatives have to wage this war:
1) Stephane Dion: Not only was he the least popular leader in the last election, but he's also stepping down in May. The Conservatives will argue that Liberals' leadership problems are not only destabilizing, but even less democratic because Canadians will not have had an opportunity to vote for the next PM of our country.
2) The economy: Again, let's talk optics. The stock market fell more that 9% (the worst since "Black Monday") on the same day the terms of the coalition were announced. This had more to do with the United States admitting that they're already in recession, and some ridiculous commodity fluctuations, but that's not going to stop the Conservatives from using this story to their own advantage.
3) Michaelle Jean: (This one is dirty, but I've already seen it start to surface on forums and comments sections.) Remember back when Ms. Jean was appointed as the new GG after Ms. Clarkson, and ugly rumors about her husbands separatist past began to surface? Well, they're coming back up again, and the spin this time is that the GG will only let this coalition government fly because of her sympathies for Quebec separatism.

My personal opinion is that all of these arguments are somewhat desperate. At the same time, it matters more what the rest of Canada thinks... or to be more specific, what the GG percieves what Canada thinks. It's really all in her hands.

And she's currently in Europe. Her information is coming from her advisers and from the media. So, really, no one really knows what her state of mind is at the moment.

What do we do about it?

The DofC asked us to write our MPs. Great (please continue) but maybe we need to take it one step further. Write the Governor General. If you want this coalition to happen, let her know how you feel about it. Here's how:

Comments, questions and suggestions may be sent by e-mail at: info@gg.ca.

The full title of the Governor General is:

Her Excellency
the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean, C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.
Governor General of Canada

The title of the Governor General's spouse is:

His Excellency Jean-Daniel Lafond, C.C.

If you are writing to the Governor General, address the letter to:

Her Excellency the Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean
Governor General of Canada
Rideau Hall
1 Sussex Drive
Ottawa, Ontario
K1A 0A1

(no postage necessary)

You can write to His Excellency at the same address.

In either case, the salutation is: Excellency

If you want to write to both of them, address the letter to:

Their Excellencies
The Right Honourable Michaëlle Jean
Governor General of Canada
and
Mr. Jean-Daniel Lafond

The salutation is: Excellencies

One more thing. According to the National Post, the GG does have one other option. She could just say "no." As in no coalition and no election. As in, go back and figure it out. Make it work.

Again, I think this is a stretch. What the NP seems to be arguing for is an end to our political party system, and have each member be allowed to have a free vote on an issue by issue basis, so that the PM doesn't need the confidence of the House.

A free-vote system is an interesting way of doing things... but it's not the way our parliamentary democracy has been built. That's more in line with the American system and, unless I'm mistaken, no Canadian really wants any part of that.